[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT
08/0000 UTC. THIS GALE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
30N83W TO 22N95W TO 18N94W BY THU EVENING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM 22N-24N W OF 96W AND FROM 25N81W TO 20N94W TO 18N93W BY FRI
EVENING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 21N W OF THE FRONT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 8N26W 6N36W TO 7N48W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-41W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ
TO 13N BETWEEN 30W-38W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 38W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
GULF NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO INLAND OVER TEXAS S OF
CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT AND W OF THE FRONT
TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER
MEXICO NEAR 20N98W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 20N93W TO
23N97W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO 26N86W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 28N90W TO THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN
88W-91W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 27N91W TO 25N92W. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER W CUBA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 83W-87W.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO TAMPICO
MEXICO BY EARLY THU FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE
FRI BEFORE STALLING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO E BAY OF
CAMPECHE SAT AND BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER W CUBA
NEAR 22N83W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER THE W ATLC AND
SW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 18N W OF 87W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-22N W OF 78W TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
NARROWING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W TO NEAR 12N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N68W TO 12N79W AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
71W-75W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LINGER THROUGH FRI. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO
E CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI THEN INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 71W-75W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ABATED AND COUPLED WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL
OCCUR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER W CUBA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N75W COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A
1032 MB HIGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 2877W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
TO 22N73W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N70W
JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO 21N71W. NETHER SURFACE TROUGH
IS PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N53W ALONG 23N57W INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W WITH A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
31N44W TO 28N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 41W-56W AND WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM
19N56W TO 28N48W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N59W TO
BARBADOS. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS...ONE OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND A
SECOND NEAR 29N30W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO
THE N/CENTRAL ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS
COAST THU EVENING AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA FRI AND
FROM 32N58W TO FLORIDA STRAITS SAT THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE
SUN INTO MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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