[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...GALE WARNING...

NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GALE FORCE FROM 20N TO 24N W OF
94W EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N25W TO 08N34W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N39W AND CONTINUES TO 06N46W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
05N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 14N36W TO 05N35W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER
A LARGE AREA FROM 03N-14N E OF 34W TO THE W AFRICA COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
22N93W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM
NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 22.5N90W TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT
20.5N. BROKEN/OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WELL-DEVELOPED AND ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W.
THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CUBA IN 48
HOURS. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY 1009 MB
LOW IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N75W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 18N76W THROUGH THE LOW TO 13N75W. AN AREA OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF 15.5N INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI BETWEEN 69W AND 73W.

HISPANIOLA...

OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS COVER MOST OF HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER SE HAITI AND THE SW
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ARE FORECAST TO MOVE N AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF 27N64W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY
NW. A LARGE AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES E OF THE CIRCULATION FROM 18N TO
27N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. STRONG SW WINDS ARE LOCATED W OF 75W
WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS IN THE 60 TO
70 KNOT RANGE. MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N40W AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE N AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED N OF 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. ANOTHER
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OFF THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 27N19W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION LOCATED NE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AT THE SURFACE
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N76W TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 23N64W TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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