[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN NOV 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF
94W...NORTH WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO
11 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 25N81W 21N90W 18N94W. NORTH
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ARE BEING
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST OF 92W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THERE ARE NO TROPICAL WAVES AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 9N20W 8N30W 9N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
5N39W TO 6N47W AND 5N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN COASTAL AFRICA FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 11W...
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
8N24W...AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 31W AND 36W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE
EAST OF 50W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N36W 12N37W 7N35W. THE TROUGH
BREAKS UP THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING AS YOU GO MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA/THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE TROUGH DISAPPEARS WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 16N83W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N74W TO SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...INTO THE
NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N78W 27N83W 22N90W 21N97W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

CLOUD CEILINGS THAT RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 5000 FEET TO 7000 FEET
ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KVAF...
KHQI...AND KIPN. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

A VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS AND FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT IN
BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM NAPLES TO SARASOTA. BROKEN LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO
COASTAL PLAINS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N61W 22N65W 19N67W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 12N TO 19N.
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 15N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 67W AND 72W...AND FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W.
THIS AREA COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING REACHING SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAVING REACHED SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
HAITI DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. OTHER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W...AND FROM 28N TO 33N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N83W...TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN HONDURAS. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
FORECAST TO COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
HISPANIOLA...WHILE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO COVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE
STARTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IT MOVES WESTWARD WITH
TIME...IN ORDER TO BE ALONG THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA... INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING FROM NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA INTO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL COLOMBIA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.56 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N77W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N865W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT REALLY EASY TO FIND
PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED SOLELY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PRESENT WITH
THE 16N83W CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N58W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W...AND FROM 28N TO 33N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM
A 33N22W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 29N24W 27N29W 25N37W
27N45W...TO A 30N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N17W TO
22N20W 22N30W...TO A 13N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
8N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 10N TO 22N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N75W 26N80W COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
30N WITHIN 240 NM OF FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS
OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET
FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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