[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT NOV 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...GALE WARNING...
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS
AFTERNOON S OF 22N W OF 93W AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SE ACROSS
THE GULF.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N16W TO 8N21W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N27W TO E OF A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR 8N34W THEN RESUMES NEAR 7N38W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM
13N37W TO 6N35W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 14N38W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER
A LARGE AREA FROM 3N-14N W OF 37W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 40W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
GULF SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 02/1500 UTC EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND JUST N
OF FORT MYERS ALONG 24N86W 22N93W TO MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM NW OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21.5N86W TO THE FRONT NEAR 24.5N85W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W COAST OF MEXICO EXTENDING
ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE FAR S GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT W OF 87W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE NW GULF ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES. SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER THE N GULF IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NE MEXICO. COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE SE AND MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN ON SUN. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD S OVER THE GULF CREATING THE
EXPECTED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 87W. THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR
15N82W TO COSTA RICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 80W-83W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF E CUBA NEAR 19N75W TO 13N74W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 5N70W TO 18N76W. AN UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
NEAR 18N66W TO THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 11N69W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG WESTERN SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIFT W
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MON. THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT NW AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE SW HAITI WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WED
AS THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE N OF HISPANIOLA BY MON
WHEN A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
ISLAND. ALL THIS COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WED. IF THESE SHOWERS TRAIN ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE
ISLAND...LOCALIZED FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES COULD OCCUR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE FAR
W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N78W
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE
FROM 26N58W TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES. COLD FRONT
WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA ON SUN THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ATLC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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