[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU
NEAR 12N16W TO 7N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N21W
TO 5N32W AND 4N40W...TO 2N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W.
SCATTERED STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF 7N44W 7N53W 10N60W...
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF TRINIDAD. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W
AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN NICARAGUA...TO 17N83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
BEYOND 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...AND 82W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N80W 26N87W 22N91W 19N93W.
THIS LINE STRETCHES FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA TO 26N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL  NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOWS
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 33N78W INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA NEAR THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO 26N90W IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 18N93W IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...RANGING IN HEIGHT FROM 4000 FEET
TO 6000 FEET...COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO GALVESTON. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...RANGING FROM 4000 FEET TO
6000 FEET...ARE IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 3000 FEET TO 4000 FEET IN
HEIGHT ARE IN SOUTHERN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI..AND
IN SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE REST OF COASTAL ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
IN THE RANGE FROM 6000 FEET TO 8000 FEET ARE IN THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BROKEN CLOUDS AT 6000 FEET
ARE OBSERVED IN SARASOTA...AND 9000 FEET AT THE TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. IT IS RAINING IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS. FAIR SKIES/SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...
KMZG...KGVX...AND KGBK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN NICARAGUA...TO 17N83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
BEYOND 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...AND 82W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 79W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
24N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N62W NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N65W...TO 11N66W JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE VENEZUELA COAST. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS IN VENEZUELA FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 28/1200 UTC...ARE 2.35 IN TRINIDAD...
1.39 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.66 IN GUADELOUPE...
0.44 IN SAINT THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 9N81W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 11N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND TO THE SOUTH
OF PANAMA...FROM 4N TO 8N TO THE EAST OF 86W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM
6N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 90W ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 14N TO THE
WEST OF 81W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

HISPANIOLA...

THE 700 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS
THAT THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED EITHER BY AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER OR A RIDGE. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS
THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN A TROUGH OR ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF A TROUGH.

EXPECT WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG ABOUT 100 NM
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N58W
TO 28N57W. THIS TROUGH BECOMES CLOSE TO A SECOND MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO
24N54W TO 18N62W NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N65W...
TO 11N66W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE VENEZUELA COAST.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 31N62W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N62W TO
29N65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS IN
VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
66W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N
TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
A CENTRAL MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO A 27N24W CYCLONIC
TO 17N33W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 31N26W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W TO 20N23W
20N39W...BEYOND 32N47W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 33N78W INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA NEAR THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO 26N90W IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 18N93W IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT
20 KNOT OR LESS WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 15N
TO THE EAST OF 38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net