[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
07N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N24W TO 05N40W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 18W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-46W...
AND FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 27N87W S-SW TO A BASE OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 15N96W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS
LOCATED WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO LIFT MOISTURE AND ADVECT
IT NORTHEAST OVER THE SE GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 91W...
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 36N71W TO 26N97W. E-SE WINDS
PREVAIL IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE
FILTERING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND AREAS S OF 26N BETWEEN
78W-84W. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS LOCATED
BETWEEN 60W-70W WITH AXIS ALONG 67W. TWO ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS ARE FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGHING. WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED W OF 67W WITH WATER VAPOR INDICATING
AN AREA OF OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 70W-80W. CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE INCREASE W OF 80W
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THIS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...PORTIONS OF
CUBA...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THIS
MORNING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N81W TO
12N84W. EAST OF 67W...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO AID
IN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EAST OF 70W WITH THE
INCLUSION OF HISPANIOLA AND THE SURROUNDING ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS N OF 17N. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE
EASTERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS EAST OF 71W. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FOR AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON DUE TO
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT PERSISTS OVER A SINGLE
LOCALE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 35N71W. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING
HOWEVER...MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING SOUTH OF
27N WEST OF 67W...AND SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 57W. BRIDGING THIS
SURFACE RIDGE AND A MORE DOMINATE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N60W TO
28N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC DOMINATES A LARGE AREA
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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