[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
07N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N25W TO 05N40W TO 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 14W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-
47W...AND FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 29N89W S-SW TO A BASE
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N96W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
IS LOCATED WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO LIFT
MOISTURE AND ADVECT IT NORTHEAST OVER THE SE GULF AND PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF
93W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH
ATLC. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N70W TO 27N97W. E-SE
WINDS PREVAIL IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE FILTERING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND AREAS S OF
26N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS LOCATED
BETWEEN 60W-72W WITH AXIS ALONG 68W. TWO ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS ARE FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGHING. WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED W OF 68W WITH WATER VAPOR INDICATING
AN AREA OF OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 70W-80W. CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE INCREASE W OF 80W
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THIS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...
PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. EAST OF 68W...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO AID IN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EAST
OF 70W WITH THE INCLUSION OF HISPANIOLA AND THE SURROUNDING
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 17N. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COAST WATERS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THIS
AGAIN WILL PROVIDE FOR AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION
THAT REMAINS OVER A SINGLE LOCALE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS EVENING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 34N70W. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING
HOWEVER MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERES AND TSTMS OCCURRING SOUTH OF
26N WEST OF 67W...AND SOUTH OF 21N WEST OF 52W. BRIDGING THIS
SURFACE RIDGE AND A MORE DOMINATE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N61W TO
29N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC DOMINATES A LARGE AREA
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR
41N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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