[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 6N25W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N25W TO 5N40W TO BRAZIL AT 4N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 11W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 25W-
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 35N73W PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.  A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 88W-90W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N
BETWEEN 90W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W CUBA W OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE W GULF AND TEXAS W OF 90W . AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF
80W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE OVER CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MOST OF VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA.
ONLY A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF CONVECTION.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVER TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED
OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA ENHANCING CONVECTION.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ALSO OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER MOST OF HAITI AND
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 70W MOVING W. MOIST TRADEWINDS
TOGETHER WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAKING PRECIPITATION
LIKELY FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR
RIVERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 35N73W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N61W
TO 28N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS DUE TO
MOIST SW TROPICAL SURFACE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A
1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 41N37W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 55W TO THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
20N E OF 50W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE S OF 30N. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC W OF 55W TO THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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