[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W CONTINUING ALONG 13N19W 7N22W TO 6N25W WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N37W3N48W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 13W-28W AND
WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA N OF 1N E OF 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER N GEORGIA INTO
THE GULF NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE
W OF THE THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT
AND COUPLED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM TAMPA TO MIAMI ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N E OF 83W
TO OVER FLORIDA AND S OF 24N E OF 87W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND OVER CUBA. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
OVER THE SE CONUS GIVING THE GULF SE TO S SURFACE FLOW WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTING THE N GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-93W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THEN WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE E GULF AND DRIFT INTO FLORIDA WED. WEAK
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF FRI AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE TIP OF
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
TO THE ABC ISLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CUBA AND N OF 21N IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 10N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER
COSTA RICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-81W. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE INLAND FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
USHERING IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND N OF 14N
BETWEEN 65W-70W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE
FAR W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WESTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI. HISPANIOLA IS ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN.
THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE WED WITH LESS RAIN ON THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY TO NEAR
31N74W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 75W. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THEN DISSIPATING ALONG 32N58W TO
29N62W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1030 MB HIGH IS N
OF BERMUDA WITH A 1035 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC JUST N OF THE
AZORES. W ATLC HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT E THROUGH WED. A
TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS FLORIDA WED THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS THU THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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