[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
05N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N24W TO 02N33W TO 02N46W TO 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 12W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER SE TEXAS WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG 98W TO
A BASE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE TROUGHING GENERATING INCREASED CLOUDINESS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N W OF 89W.
OTHERWISE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS THE PRIMARY
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH ONLY A FEW EASTWARD
MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA IN
THE VICINITY OF 25N84W...AND ACROSS AN AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 89W-
91W. THESE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND WITHIN E-SE SURFACE
WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 32N71W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH E-SE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE RANGE OF 10
TO 20 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS LOCATED
BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED W OF 70W WITH WATER VAPOR INDICATING
AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 21N W OF 82W. THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. EAST OF 70W...
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO AID IN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EAST OF A LINE FROM 20N60W TO THE
CENTRALLY LOCATED ABC ISLAND OF CURACAO NEAR 12N69W.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS PROVIDING MOISTURE OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. E-SE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THE ISLAND BUT NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS FOUND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
SURROUNDING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND THIS AGAIN WILL PROVIDE
FOR AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INITIATE DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA EXTENDS
TROUGHING SOUTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO A BASE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEST OF 60W THAT IS
PROVIDING AN OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER MOVING ON EASTERLY
WINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N71W. FARTHER EAST...THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W THAT EXTENDS SW TO 28N70W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED W-NW OF THE AZORES NEAR
42N38W. THE ONLY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION SURROUNDING
THIS RIDGE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERLY PERIPHERY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 23N BETWEEN 47W-67W...
DUE TO MAXIMIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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