[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR
10N14W TO 7N20W AND 5N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
5N24W AND 2N33W AND 2N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N IN SIERRA LEONE TO 11N IN
GUINEA...BETWEEN 11W AND 14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W...
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W...FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 30W AND 41W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 56W
AND 60W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS
OF GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 87W/88W...
FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 26N94W...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 20N97W...TO 17N99W
ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 97W AND 98W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO ALONG 21N93W 16N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 90W AND MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER AND ALREADY-
DISSIPATED PRECIPITATION ALSO COVER THE SAME AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 28N88W 25N94W...TO 21N97W IN THE
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.  32N81W NEAR THE BORDER OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...TO A 1026 MB GULF OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N87W...TO 28N94W...
TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 25N98W...TO 19N97W
IN MEXICO NOT FAR FROM THE COAST.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...ABOUT 4000 FEET OR SO...COVER THE
TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...NEAR
5000 FEET OR SO...ARE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND A MIDDLE CLOUD CEILING
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN NAPLES FLORIDA. CLOUD CEILINGS OF
6500 FEET IN SARASOTA AND 7000 FEET IN PUNTA GORDA
ARE BEING REPORTED. LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING AT
MARATHON KEY IN FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE
ICAO STATION KMZG. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 87W/88W...
FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST
OF 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL PLAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...TO THE WEST OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM 10N83W NEAR COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA...TO 17N82W NEAR NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND
EASTERN HONDURAS...TO 21N87W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
26N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N67W...THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE...TO 13N72W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO
THE EAST OF 13N70W 16N67W 20N62W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 27/1200 UTC...ARE 2.07 FOR GUADELOUPE...
0.50 FOR TRINIDAD0...0.35 FOR SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 9N80W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 11N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN COLOMBIA
FROM 7N TO 10N AT 27/1045 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS
DISSIPATED LEAVING MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS.
NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N82W...
AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W.

HISPANIOLA...

THE


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W
TO 27N65W. THIS TROUGH BECOMES CLOSE TO A SECOND MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO
26N60W TO 20N67W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 13N72W
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N64W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N64W TO 29N65W AND 26N67W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N TO 25N IN THE
BAHAMAS BETWEEN 72W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
81W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN
30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N80W 28N70W 29N65W
BEYOND 32N60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 24N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N14W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 27N34W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N44W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY
18N60W 10N60W 10N51W 18N60W. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING
8 FEET FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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