[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
05N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N25W TO 05N38W TO 02N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 10W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER SE TEXAS WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG 100W
TO A BASE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE TROUGHING GENERATING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N W OF
90W. OTHERWISE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS THE PRIMARY
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH ONLY A FEW EASTWARD
MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...AND
ACROSS AN AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-90W. THESE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND WITHIN E-SE SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 33N68W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH E-SE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LOCATED BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED W OF 70W WITH WATER VAPOR
INDICATING AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA SW OF A LINE FROM
20N87W TO 15N80W. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. EAST OF 70W...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
AID IN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EAST OF A LINE
FROM 20N60W TO THE CENTRALLY LOCATED ABC ISLAND OF CURACAO NEAR
12N69W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS PROVIDING
MOISTURE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO LESSEN IN COVERAGE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AS THE
PRIOR EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW DIMINISHING SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND AS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION COMES TO AN END. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL REMAINS
OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE SURROUNDING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND
THIS AGAIN WILL PROVIDE FOR AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA EXTENDS
TROUGHING SOUTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO A BASE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEST OF 64W THAT IS
PROVIDING AN OVERALL QUIET EVENING FOR THE THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER MOVING ON EASTERLY
WINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N68W. FARTHER EAST...THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N62W THAT EXTENDS SW TO 28N67W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED W-NW OF THE AZORES NEAR
42N38W. THE ONLY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION SURROUNDING
THIS RIDGE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERLY PERIPHERY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-
65W...DUE TO MAXIMIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
WWWW
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