[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N20W TO
5N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N26W TO 4N32W TO 5N47W TO
BRAZIL AT 4N51W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 12W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 29W-33W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN
18W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO N OF THE
ITCZ FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 45W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES INLAND
OVER E TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS E OF 98W. FURTHER S...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM
22N95W TO 17N95W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 93W-99W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N73W PRODUCING
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15
KT E TO SE WINDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO
PREVAIL OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
COSTA RICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 8N-20N BETWEEN 81W-94W.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER JAMAICA...E
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER
THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AND VENEZUELA E OF 65W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
80W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W CUBA
WHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST.

HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC W OF 70W. MOIST TRADEWINDS TOGETHER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS MAKING PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 32N73W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N63W TO
27N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
30N. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 42N41W. SURFACE RIDGING IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC EXCEPT FOR AN EMBEDDED
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N41W TO 24N38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
N OF 20N E OF 50W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE S OF 30N. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 55W TO THE LEEWARD
AND WINDWARD ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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