[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 7N18W 6N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 6N24W AND CONTINUES ALONG
4N32W 5N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 11W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 25W-
30W AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS
NEAR 90W. THIS IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGING THAT DOMINATES
THE BASIN WHICH EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER
THE W ATLC NEAR 31N74W. EXCEPT FOR S OF 22N...MODERATE MOISTURE
ALOFT COVERS THE BASIN ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF. S OF 22N...BOTH WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY DEPICT HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ALONG 21N94W TO 17N95W. A CLUSTER OF RAINSHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 21N W OF 92W. MAINLY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE THROUGHOUT THE AREA RANGING FROM 10-
15 KT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 70W COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
EXCEPT FOR W OF 78W. THIS IS ENHANCING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 145 NM OFF THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 15N
W OF 79W GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OVER E NICARAGUA AS WELL AS
THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 70 NM OF THE HONDURAS COAST. CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH AXIS MAY BE
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST OF 67W...CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE
RAINSHOWERS HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING S OF
12N BETWEEN 61W-63W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPREAD FROM THE GULF TO
THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PROVIDING FOR FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS PART OF THE BASIN.
OTHERWISE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN AS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE ISLAND ALONG 70W CURRENTLY
ENHANCING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 145 NM OFF THE
SOUTHERN COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS CLUSTER OF
RAINSHOWERS SPREADS INLAND E OF 70W. AN AREA OF RAINSHOWERS IS
ALSO JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLIGHTLY MOVES EASTWARD AND THEN STALL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS SURFACE
RIDGING IN THE FAR WESTERN ATLC AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
31N74W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST ALONG 63W SUPPORTS A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
30N64W AND CONTINUES TO 26N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N
BETWEEN 61W AND 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E
ATLC SW TO THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 29N37W TO 24N37W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM WEST
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN N OF 12N IS
DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS WEST AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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