[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031112
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W
TO 2N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1N37W
AND 1N42W. A SECOND PART OF THE ITCZ IS ALONG 1S17W
3S23W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 3S29W 2S34W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN
A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 2N16W.
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 2N2W 2N7W...FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W...
AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N30W
1N35W 2N41W...AND 4N48W 6N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 8W AND
15W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ALSO IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8S
BETWEEN 25W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH LOUISIANA TO 25N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TO 21N92W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W TO 24N93W...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W...
INTO MEXICO NEAR 25N103W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF 90W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO
THE WEST OF 94W.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE
COMPARATIVELY WESTERN AND MORE INLAND STATIONS
IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE SKIES HAVE BEEN
CLEARING ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE
FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE REST OF FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO
STATIONS KGVX...KVBS...KGUL...KCRH...KGBK...KHQI...
KMYT...KEIR...AND KSPR. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE
ICAO STATION KIPN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING...FOR NORTHWEST TO
NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...
TO THE WEST OF THE 30N91W 26N92W COLD FRONT FROM
22N TO 27N. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 30 KNOT NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE
TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT.

FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST
OF 70W...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA...BELIZE...HONDURAS...
AND NICARAGUA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO 27N84W IN THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
25N84W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO THE LOUISIANA COAST THAT IS ALONG
90W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN CUBA
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO NORTHERN BELIZE AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST
OF 29N90W 26N90W 24N83W. A THIRD AND SEPARATE SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN FLORIDA...FROM 30N82W TO 27N83W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N OFF THE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR TO 19N BETWEEN 81W AND 89W. THIS PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND LAND FROM THE HONDURAS/
NICARAGUA BORDER...COVERING ALL OF HONDURAS...EARLIER
IN EL SALVADOR AND IN BELIZE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE 24N68W 29N72W BEYOND
32N76W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND NORTH-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE EASTERNMOST POINT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NEAR
10N88W. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO REACH COLOMBIA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 4N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 6N TO THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
BETWEEN 79W AND 85W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 84W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 60W
FROM 19N BEYOND 32N. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 76W.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N55W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N50W 25N60W 22N71W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN
47W AND 57W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 40W
AND 54W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N
TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 41N36W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 31N29W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N29W
TO 26N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF
31N27W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE CURVES
THROUGH 32N20W TO 24N29W 20N43W AND 12N58W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING...FOR
EASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 10 TO 15 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 77W.
ALSO EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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