[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W AND EXTENDS SW TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W TO
1N30W TO COASTAL BRAZIL AT 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 7W-18W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 3N-4S
BETWEEN 23W-37W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF
TEXAS AT 30N101W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA AT
30N90W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N90W TO SOUTHERN MEXICO
AT 16N95W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE FRONT.
A GALE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF 21N W OF 94W. A 1009 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N84W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO W CUBA AT 23N82W.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
TAMPA AT 28N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT THE GALE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AT 00Z. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT A 1006 MB LOW TO BE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SE FROM THE LOW TO THE N BAHAMAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N82W TO THE COAST OF
NE HONDURAS AT 16N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF HONDURAS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 80W-85W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA APPROACHING HAITI.
FURTHER S...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR
10N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA DUE
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...10 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE SE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 1500 UTC... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE
CENTER TO 31N. A GALE IS ALSO N OF 28N W OF 77W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 30N48W TO 25N55W TO
22N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-31N
BETWEEN 40W-50W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
33N20W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
10W-30W. IN THE TROPICS... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 90 KT JETSTREAM IS
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 24N15W TO 20N60W. EXPECT THE
GALE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AT 00Z. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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