[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 7N15W AND 5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 5N18W TO 3N22W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
24W...TO 4S29W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG
38W...TO 1N44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
2N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W...
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S BETWEEN 24W AND 26W...AND
FROM 3S TO 7S BETWEEN 25W AND 32W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF 3N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN...2N6W 1N11W
1N16W...AND 2N32W 2N41W 4N47W 5N51W 10N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH LOUISIANA TO 25N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TO 21N92W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA TO 26N95W...AND THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
22N98W...INTO MEXICO NEAR 26N103W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE LOUISIANA
COAST THAT IS ALONG 90W...TO 25N92W 22N94W AND THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N97W NEAR THE
MEXICO COAST.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA
COASTAL AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE APALACHEE BAY.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED FROM PERRY FLORIDA
TO BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA. THE TAMPA-SAINT PETERSBURG
METROPOLITAN AREA IS OBSERVING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN. FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET COVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
STATIONS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF PUNTA GORDA.
THE FORT MYERS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT JUST REPORTED
A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED
AT THE ICAO STATION KMYT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGVX...KVBS...
KGUL...KCRH...KGBK...KHQI...KEIR...AND KSPR.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING...FOR NORTHWEST TO
NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...
TO THE WEST OF THE 30N91W 20N97W COLD FRONT FOR
THE TIME OF 03/0600 UTC.

FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST
OF 70W...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA...BELIZE...HONDURAS...
AND NICARAGUA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO 29N87W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO 27N84W TO 24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N83W. ONE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO THE LOUISIANA COAST THAT IS ALONG 90W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN CUBA IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W. A THIRD AND
SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN FLORIDA...FROM 27N TO
31N ALONG 81W/82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM CUBA TO 27N BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 240 NM
TO 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
27N74W BEYOND 32N77W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...COVERING THE AREA THAT GOES FROM
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA TO 19N BETWEEN 84W
AND 90W...INCLUDING GUATEMALA...BELIZE...HONDURAS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND NORTH-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 8N73W
IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N78W IN COLOMBIA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA...THROUGH 8N81W
IN PANAMA...INTO COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W...BEYOND
10N88W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN
68W AND 75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 84W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N60W TO 20N65W. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 76W. A 1011 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 31N52W 27N59W 26N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
16N TO 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 42N36W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 31N30W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N30W
TO 26N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 29W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N21W TO 27N25W 23N33W AND 22N50W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING...FOR
EASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 77W.
ALSO EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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