[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG
EQ24W 2S30W EQ36W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 7W-13W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 18W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COMPLICATED AND STORMY PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NW
GULF ALONG 30N94W 25N98W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS NEAR THE FRONT
FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 94W-95W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
INLAND ACROSS MEXICO FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 97W-101W. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING UP TO
25 KT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS MEXICO.
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
26N85W. THE LOW IS NOT WELL DEFINED...BUT TWO CLEAR SURFACE
TROUGHS EXTEND FROM THE CENTER BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
ONE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO THE SW TOWARDS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 23N86W 20N89W. AN AREA OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
86W-89W. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARDS
THE NW ALONG 28N89W 32N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UP TO 150 NM EAST OF THE AXIS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST CONTINUING
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG 31N81W TO 27N82W.
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS RECEIVED HEAVY
AMOUNTS OF RAIN EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO FLOODING.
ALOFT...A PAIR OF UPPER TROUGHS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN. ONE COVERS
THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 85W AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SURFACE
LOW AND LARGE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING
OVER FLORIDA MOST OF THE DAY. THE SECOND IS STILL INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AND FAR EASTERN MEXICO SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT.
BOTH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE EAST AND THE FRONT IN THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL PUSH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA TO THE EAST. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
COMPARED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO THE CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY CALM.
A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP
OVER A FEW OF THE ISLANDS INCLUDING NORTHERN
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. A LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 86W-89W AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS EAST OF 64W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
EAST OF THE ISLANDS. LIGHT TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10 KT SPREADS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. SURFACE TROUGHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL SPREAD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC NORTH OF 23N WEST
OF 75W. A SWATH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TOWARDS THE EAST AND AHEAD
OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N47W TO
27N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS UP TO 200 NM SE OF THE AXIS. A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO TO THE
SOUTH FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 51W-63W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
THE FRONT TO THE NORTH IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERING THE NORTH ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
SUPPORTS A SECOND STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 30N30W
26N39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC AS WELL AS THE
TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net