[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W AND EXTENDS SW TO 5N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N15W TO
1N20W TO 1N40W TO COASTAL BRAZIL AT 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 6W-9W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-3S
BETWEEN 15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS
MOVING SE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF TEXAS.
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF ALABAMA NEAR 27N87W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 23N90W TO 22N93W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 80W-83W. FAIR WEATHER
IS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E
OVER FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 7N69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 65W.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY NW TO W FLOW
IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE ELSEWHERE
MORE SHOWERS ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AND
THE N BAHAMAS N OF 23N W OF 76W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N49W TO 29N55W TO 27N62W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. THE TAIL END
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO
30N31W TO 25N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS
FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
10W-30W. IN THE TROPICS... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 55W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A 90 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM
24N15W TO 20N60W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN INCREASE
OF CONVECTION E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS N OF CUBA.
ALSO EXPECT THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH CONTINUED
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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