[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W TO 2N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 2N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG
1N30W 1N43W 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-5N BETWEEN 1W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE BURST OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 84W-91W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONNECTED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA
NEAR 32N93W. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
31N92W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER ALONG
29N90W 25N93W...AS OF 2100 UTC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE
UPPER LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF FLORIDA IS
SUPPORTING ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER ALAMABA AND LOUISIANA. DRY AIR
ALOFT IS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF...WHILE EASTERLY 5-10 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL GULF FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE BASIN
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF BY 48 HOURS.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL RETURN OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN IN ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW. THE DRY AIR ALOFT IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER A FEW OF THE ISLANDS
INCLUDING NORTHERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM 14N-18N EAST OF 65W. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15 KT CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 79W IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT SPREAD
INTO THE WEST ATLC TO 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS
BEGINNING TO SINK SOUTH SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N74W
26N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-31N
BETWEEN 58W-73W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 38N38W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N34W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N39W 23N47W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO EITHER SIDE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC AS WELL AS THE
TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

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