[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W AND EXTENDS SW TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO
1N23W TO 1N43W TO COASTAL BRAZIL AT 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN
4W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 14W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 17W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA AT 29N90W TO 26N90W
TO 24N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 86W-90W. A BAND OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST
OF SW FLORIDA FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 81W-85W MOVING E. ELSEWHERE
...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 93W.
ALSO OF NOTE...SMOKE IS REPORTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
22N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
LOUISIANA NEAR 31N92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER
IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E
OF 64W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA...AND
OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY SW TO W
FLOW IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N75W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
N OF 15N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N41W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE
LOW TO 32N35W TO 22N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N
BETWEEN 10W-30W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 90
KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 24N15W TO
20N60W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN INCREASE OF
CONVECTION E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS N OF CUBA. ALSO
EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH CONTINUED
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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