[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 3N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
3N20W TO 1N30W AND THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO
3N BETWEEN 3W AND 10W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN
12W AND 14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 7N12W 3N22W 4N26W 5N40W 8N47W 9N51W
10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO 22N92W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE IS THE SAME FEATURE THAT WAS IN
CENTRAL TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 24N TO 29N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W.
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY END UP REACHING FLORIDA
IF IT REMAINS INTACT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS...ENDING WITH
A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN THE BEAUMONT/
PORT ARTHUR AREA. VISIBILITIES NEAR 3 MILES OR
SO ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST AREA. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN TEXAS
AND FLORIDA. SCATTERED AND BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO APPEAR ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
COAST FROM THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA SOUTHWARD.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER FLORIDA TO THE WEST
OF THE APALACHEE BAY.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO STATIONS
KGVX...KVBS...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...KEIR...AND
KSPR. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE
ICAO STATION KATP.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 30-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
INDICATES A 29N91W 24N98W COLD FRONT.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG A NORTH-
TO-SOUTH LINE FROM MEXICO...THROUGH GUATEMALA...
AND ACROSS HONDURAS. STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS
OF 15N81.5W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...AND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW
MERGES WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...
AND FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS IN COLOMBIA ALONG 7N72W
TO 7N78W...INTO PANAMA NEAR 8N81W...INTO COSTA RICA
NEAR 9N83W...BEYOND 9N87W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND COASTAL WATERS AND
IN VENEZUELA...IN CLUSTERS...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
71W AND 79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
18N TO THE WEST OF 85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N72W. A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 31N76W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER. A SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N78W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH
OF 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 78W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 35N41W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W
AND 50W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A COLD FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N42W...
THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N40W AND 22N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH
OF 29N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
29N36W 24N49W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 49W AND 78W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N69W TO 26N62W AND 18N57W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 24W/25W FROM 5N BEYOND 32N.

UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N70W 15N60W
16N50W 20N40W 22N30W...BEYOND 23N23W...
TOWARD AFRICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N40W
23N50W. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 44W. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES A 31N77W
29N74W SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 72W AND 77W.
ALSO EXPECT NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
77W AND 79W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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