[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
4N15W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W...TO 2S26W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 33W...TO 2N44W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N57W NEAR SOUTHERN GUYANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 5W AND 7W...FROM 2N TO 8N
BETWEEN 10W AND 13W...FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 19W AND
22W...AND FROM 1N TO 1S BETWEEN 49W AND 50W IN
BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 1N TO
1S BETWEEN 10W AND 17W...AND FROM 1S TO 6S BETWEEN
20W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CENTRAL LOUISIANA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS A SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO A SOUTH-
EASTERN LOUISIANA 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
TO 22N89W 27N89W AND 25N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W...AND FROM 30N TO 31N
BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL ALABAMA AND SOUTH-
EASTERN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE EAST OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...LOW CLOUDS...LOW
VISIBILITY...AND FOG IN THE AREA OF ANGLETON/
LAKE JACKSON AND BAY CITY IN TEXAS. FAIR SKIES
AND/OR SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION COVER THE COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN
LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES AND/OR SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ACROSS
THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 30-HOUR FORECAST OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...TO THE WEST
OF A 30N92W 23N98W COLD FRONT. EXPECT ALSO
20 TO 25 KNOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N
BETWEEN 84W AND 89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG A NORTH-
TO-SOUTH LINE FROM MEXICO...THROUGH GUATEMALA...
AND ACROSS HONDURAS. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ALSO IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...FROM
20N TO 23N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...AND FROM 16N TO
18N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND
GUATEMALA...AND COASTAL WATERS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND NORTH-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW
MERGES WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF
PANAMA...AND FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM WESTERN
LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR
10N72W...TO PANAMA NEAR 9N78W...INTO COSTA RICA
NEAR 9N83W...BEYOND 11N88W INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
7N TO 9N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W...IN COASTAL AREAS
AND WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N65W TO 31N74W. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO
THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 32N70W.

A MEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 39N38W. A 1004 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 39N39W. A COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER...CURVING
THROUGH 32N33W TO 26N40W AND 24N45W. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N38W
24N44W 22N47W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N23W TO 25N27W AND 20N31W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM LA PENINSULA DE
LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W
TO 13N68W 15N60W 16N53W 17N41W...BEYOND 21N25W...
TOWARD AFRICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 30N35W
23N45W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF
THE FRONT 40W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO
THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N79W 27N74W. EXPECT
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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