[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302015 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
405 PM EDT SAT MAR 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N13W TO 4N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N17W TO 2N20W
TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 1S47W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF ADVECTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE W GULF. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N75W. SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW
OVER THE W GULF COUPLED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF TUE AND EXTEND FROM
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE E ATLC IS
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT IS
ANALYZED AS A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N60W TO HISOANIOLA AT 18N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. REMNANT
MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS A PORTION OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA AT 18N73W TO
JAMAOCA TO E HONDURAS AT 15N86W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS THAT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON
AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N75W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-65W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N35W AND EXTENDS SW TO 25N40W TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER
THE E ATLC. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N21W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE THEN SHIFT EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP PAST NORTHERN WATERS TUE AND WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MRF


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