[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301104 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N16W TO 5N18W WHERE THE
ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 3N22W 1N33W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 42W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE
W GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND W ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE GULF NEAR 28N84W AND A 1026 MB HIGH IN
THE W ATLC. SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W GULF
COUPLED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF N OF 23N W OF 92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF TUE AND EXTEND FROM FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE E ATLC IS
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT IS
ANALYZED AS A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 13N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. REMNANT MOISTURE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS A PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 16N79W TO OVER SW HAITI AND FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN
79W-84W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER
PRESSURE OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLOWLY EASTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N77W AND A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N
BETWEEN 45W-65W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N36W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N43W 21N54W TO 17N62W
WHERE A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM
THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE E ATLC. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N24W. W
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE THEN
SHIFT EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP PAST NORTHERN WATERS TUE
AND WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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