[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N13W
TO 4N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N17W TO 2N20W TO 1N30W TO 1N40W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-03N BETWEEN 22W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 34W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N75W
PRODUCING 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W-96W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE S GULF. ELSEWHERE...TWO SHIPS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA ARE REPORTING 20 KT EAST WINDS IN FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUD OVER THE NE GULF AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 18N60W TO PUERTO
RICO AT 18N67W TO HAITI AT 18N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE SHEARLINE. MORE REMNANT MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS COVERS A PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE FROM HAITI AT 18N73W TO JAMAOCA TO E HONDURAS AT 15N86W. A
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN A 1007 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA AT 7N74W AND THE HIGH OVER
THE W ATLANTIC PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE W SIDE OF ANUPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N75W
MOVING E. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N32W
TO 25N40W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS
NEAR 29N21W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 90-150 KT JETSTREAM
EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO 32N50W SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N47W WITH SHOWERS...WHILE THE OTHER COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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