[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W TO 5N17W AND 1N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO
1S27W...TO THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 35W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO
THE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W...FROM 4N
TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 13W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
2N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 20W...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER AND IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 27N66W.
THESE FEATURES SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N34W TO 25N50W 20N63W...TO THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
18N71W. A SHEAR AXIS FOR WIND SPEED CONTINUES FROM
18N71W TO 17N74W AND 16N78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 33N10W 33N30W 30N43W 27N50W 23N60W
20N70W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 18N82W 15N84W
IN EASTERN HONDURAS...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL COAST OF JAMAICA TO 14N80W AND 9N80W
AT THE COAST OF PANAMA.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THAT PART OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 20N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THAT PART OF MEXICO
THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC...BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
FROM MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N87W...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE GALE-FORCE
WIND THAT WAS BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS ENDED. PLEASE READ
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FORECAST FOR
THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES ARE IN THIS AREA.
ICAO STATION KGVX...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...
IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 3200 FEET.
ICAO STATION KGBK IS OBSERVING A CEILING
AT 3400 FEET. NO STATION IS REPORTING
SUSTAINED 20 KNOT WINDS.

SOME OF THE STATIONS THAT ARE IN THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS ARE REPORTING
LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...
SUCH AS REYNOSA AND MATAMOROS IN MEXICO...AND
IN TEXAS BROWNSVILLE AND PORT ISABEL. CLEAR SKIES
ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
FAIR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF
COASTAL PLAINS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER
THE REST OF THE GULF COAST PLAINS ELSEWHERE
TO THE EAST OF TEXAS...TO FLORIDA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS MIDDLE LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE 28/1200 UTC ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
WITH TIME. IT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N55W TO 17N56W...TO 13N61W JUST TO THE EAST OF
SAINT VINCENT...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
11N63W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA TO
EASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIGINATES
IN NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 9N66W
TO 14N77W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
TO CENTRAL HONDURAS TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOTW WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 72W
AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 78W AND 81W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
10N54W 19N37W BEYOND 32N24W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 22N64W TO
24N70W...TO 29N79W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...TO THE 1026 MB NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N10W...ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N29W TO 22N39W 19N57W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N37W
20N62W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
12 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N
WITHIN 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT TO 35W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N
TO THE EAST OF 50W TO 35W...EXCEPT 12 TO 15 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 26N. EXPECT 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO
THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W. EXPECT ALSO
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH
OF THE LINE FROM 31N73W TO 22N60W. 12 TO 15 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO THE EAST OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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