[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 5N16W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W
TO 1S26W AND 1S34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N14W.
SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 10W
AND 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF FROM 3N TO 2S BETWEEN 17W AND
50W IN COASTAL BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 27N67W
AND 25N74W. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT THE SLOWLY-
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO
25N50W 20N62W...TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N71W. A SHEAR AXIS
FOR WIND SPEED CONTINUES FROM 18N71W...CURVING TO
17N75W AND 14N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 33N10W 35N20W 3430W 30N43W 26N50W
22N60W 20N69W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N76W...
TO 17N82W AND 14N84W IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST
OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TO 14N76W AND 9N80W AT THE COAST
OF PANAMA.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THAT PART OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 20N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THAT PART OF MEXICO
THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC...BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
FROM MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N87W...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TO 19N97W IN COASTAL MEXICO.
THE GALE-FORCE WIND THAT WAS BLOWING IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS ENDED.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FORECAST FOR
THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ICAO STATION KBBF...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...
IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET.
ICAO STATION KGVX...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...
IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 3200 FEET.
ICAO STATION KGBK IS OBSERVING A CEILING
AT 4700 FEET. ICAO STATION KECH HAS A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN SKY AT 3800 FEET. ICAO STATION KMYT...
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST...IS
REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 3700 FEET.
ICAO STATION KVBS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF LOUISIANA...IS REPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS
AT 3300 FEET. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE
REST OF THIS AREA. NO STATION IS REPORTING
SUSTAINED 20 KNOT WINDS.

SOME OF THE STATIONS THAT ARE IN THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS ARE REPORTING CLOUD CEILINGS
CLOSE TO 6000 FEET ARE...MATAMOROS IN MEXICO...AND
EDINBURG AND WESLACO IN TEXAS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. CLOUD CEILINGS NEAR 6000 FEET ARE OBSERVED
IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
THE VISIBILITY OF BAY CITY TEXAS IS ABOUT 1 MILE
WITH FOG. CLOUD CEILINGS RANGING FROM 3500 FEET
TO 4000 FEET COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST BETWEEN
THE MIDDLE GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF
COAST. FAIR SKIES ARE ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF
COAST. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS COVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO
GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. PERRY FLORIDA IS REPORTING
A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES. PATTERSON LOUISIANA
IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1.75 MILES.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE
GULF COAST PLAINS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS MIDDLE LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE 28/1200 UTC ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
WITH TIME. IT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
22N55W TO 17N57W...TO 13N60W TO 12N62W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA TO
EASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 74W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIGINATES
IN NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 9N66W
TO 14N77W.

A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO NORTHWESTERN
HONDURAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOTW WINDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN
74W AND 77W INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
10N54W 19N37W BEYOND 32N24W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 23N69W...ACROSS
ABACO ISLAND AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE 1027 MB NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 30N87W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N7W IN MOROCCO...
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N26W...TO 23N36W
AND 19N58W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N36W
19N68W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH
OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 73W. SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET ARE TO THE
WEST OF 48W...AND RANGING FROM 9 TO 15 FEET
ARE TO THE EAST OF 48W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS
OR LESS AND 8 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 29N55W 15N39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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