[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN GUINEA
AT 9N13W INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 3N17W 1N20W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS AT 1N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1S25W EQ34W 3S43W. A
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 17W-20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 31W-
37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER ALABAMA NEAR 32N88W. THIS
PATTERN IS PROVIDING 10-15 KT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OVERCAST AREAS
ALONG THE NE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. DRY AIR
ALOFT IS ALSO HELPING MAINTAIN THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN HISPANIOLA TO
SOUTH OF JAMAICA ALONG 19N72W TO 16N77W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 120 NM NW OF THE AXIS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT OVER NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA DUE TO A COLD FRONT IN THE ATLC THAT EXTENDS JUST TO
THIS PORTION OF THE ISLAND. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 KT COVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY TRADEWIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT WITH 20-25 KT
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CLEARS SKIES SPREAD THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 49W. THE SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD
OVER INTO THE WEST ATLC AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N34W AND TRAILING SW TO
HISPANIOLA ALONG 24N54W 19N70W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM EAST...AND 100 NM WEST OF THE AXIS. THE SYSTEM
IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERING THE NW
ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 49W SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N24W. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
THIS AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH NW AFRICA INTO
THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 4N45W...BUT IS
NOT SUPPORTING ANY ACTIVE WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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