[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W TO
4N16W 2N23W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W AND 14W. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FURTHER WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270
NM FROM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUE OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N88W. THE HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROVIDING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO THE
EASTERN GULF E OF 91W AND THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 22N WHILE IN
THE WESTERN GULF N OF 22N EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF THE
SAME MAGNITUDE DOMINATE. THIS SURFACE WIND FLOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS
ALL THE WAY DOWN ALONG THE E COAST OF MEXICO TO CAMPECHE CITY IN
THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. METAR OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE E
COAST OF MEXICO HAVE REPORTED HAZE AND FOG. NO CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THE SATELLITE
COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 23N W OF 90W. CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ASSISTED BY
DRY AIR ALOFT EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.
OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE HIGH OVER MISSISSIPPI REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. WIND MAGNITUDE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAINED
WITHIN 10-15 KT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS TRANSITIONED TO A
SHEARLINE ALONG 19N73W 17N78W AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS
NEAR 15N83W. WEST OF THE SHEARLINE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW UP TO 25
KT IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS WHERE
CONTINUOUS RAIN AND HAZE HAVE BEEN REPORTED. SHOWERS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH JAMAICA
AND ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE SHEARLINE. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
THE RANGE OF 15-25 KT SPREAD E OF THE SHEARLINE TO 73W. IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND OF 25 KT FLOWS TOWARD AN INLAND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EASTERLY
TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT ABOUNDS AS WELL AS FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR ALOFT EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SHEARLINE WILL DISPLACE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH AXIS CROSSING THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALL THE WAY TO COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA.
LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
ALONG 30N51W 25N61W 20N71W TO WEST OF HAITI NEAR 19N73W THEN
TRANSITIONING INTO A SHEARLINE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL
AS WITHIN 70 NM EAST OF IT N OF 22N AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE
FRONT S OF 22N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC N OF 11N ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
25N34W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 30N18W TO 27N24W. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC WATERS WHILE THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION DRIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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