[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 11N14W TO 4N20W 2N24W AND 2N28W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG BETWEEN 7W AND
11W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH
OF 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 4S BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE BAHAMAS...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N51W TO 28N60W 25N67W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN COASTAL JAMAICA...TO 18N82W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
FROM NORTHEASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS TO WESTERN
HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W...AND THEN TO THE NORTH OF
29N50W 26N60W...TO NORTHERN HAITI...AND TO THE
NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW...THAT IS MOVING FAR AWAY FROM
THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WIND
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGVX ALONG
THE TEXAS GULF COAST...KGBK OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST...KHQI OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF LOUISIANA...KMYT AND KMDJ OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST. THE OTHER STATIONS ARE REPORTING
CLEAR SKIES. NO STATION IS REPORTING SUSTAINED
20 KNOT WINDS.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS AND IN SOME OF
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST STATIONS.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE GULF
COAST PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TO
FLORIDA. ONLY THE KEY WEST NAVAL STATION IS
OBSERVING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 21N
BETWEEN 91W AND 95W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 68W...
IN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N
TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W IN COLOMBIA NEAR
THE BORDER WITH PANAMA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 25N38W...TO 20N62W...TO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2....
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 20N76W 16N84W.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N54W. A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 24N51W BEYOND
32N37W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N16W TO 25N23W AND 18N27W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N25W TO 31N28W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N15W 29N21W 27N26W
27N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N17W
29N25W 28N34W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N12W...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS...TO 26N21W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N7W 25N17W 22N28W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N8W IN MOROCCO...TO 27N14W AT THE COAST
OF THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 23N24W...TO A 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N38W...TO
20N62W...TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N54W
20N74W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
10 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 40W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 69W.
EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 TO 15 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N.
EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST
OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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