[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 4N22W AND 3N29W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 3N29W TO 2N33W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 35W...TO 1S40W AND 3S44W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG BETWEEN 6W AND 8W...
FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...TO THE SOUTH
OF 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W...AND FROM 1N TO 3S
BETWEEN 27W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE BAHAMAS...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N53W TO 29N60W 25N68W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 19N80W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
15N87W IN NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N29W 29N40W 28N50W 27N60W 23N70W...
INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 19N80W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N84W ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW...THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS
GULF COAST...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO
20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST...TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. FAIR SKIES/
CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE GULF COAST
PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TO
FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN
84W AND 95W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 66W...
IN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES 22N54W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 22N65W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N74W IN
COLOMBIA...TO 9N78W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N81W
IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF COLOMBIA...FROM 10N
TO 11N AT 26/2215 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS
WEAKENED. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAS FORMED FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN
74W AND 75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2....
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 20N76W 16N84W.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N54W. A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 25N51W BEYOND
32N37W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N18W TO 28N25W AND 20N29W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 32N16W 28N23W
27N32W 28N39W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N15W...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS...TO 27N21W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 31N10W 24N22W 22N30W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N7W IN MOROCCO...ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 24N22W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N41W...TO 22N54W...
22N65W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N53W
21N75W. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND
10 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 50W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN
390 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 35W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 71W.
EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 17 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT TO 72W. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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