[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W
INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 3N23W EQ34W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT EW34W AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 3S43W. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 12W-
16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN
21W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 27W-
33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A
1032 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING <STRONG>
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM 15-25 KT.
THESE STRONG WINDS ARE BANKING AGAINST THE COAST OF MEXICO
INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHICH IS CAUSING THE FORMATION
OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT...MAINLY
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERING THE NE ATLC AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE DRY AIR IS ALSO INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE BASIN AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO NORTHERN HONDURAS AT
15N86W. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING NW OF THE AXIS TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE
NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS ALSO BUILT UP
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRESENT DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N59W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DUE TO
THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SW NORTH ATLC ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W AND CONTINUING TO EASTERN CUBA ALONG
26N67W 21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE ATLC. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 17N59W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 24N39W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE RIDGE FROM NORTH OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO JUST EAST OF THE HIGH CENTER ALONG 31N18W TO
25N33W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. THE TROUGH
IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN THE
AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLANDS TO NEAR 14N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

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