[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT
11N15W INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 7N19W EQ24W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS AT EQ24W AND CONTINUES ALONG EQ35W 3S41W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 11W-15W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 16W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1031
MB HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER NEAR 33N89W. THIS
PATTERN IS PROVIDING 10-15 KT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME 20 KT WINDS IN THE FAR SE GULF NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OVERCAST AREAS
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS
PRESENT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS AND
MEXICO...WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. DRY AIR ALOFT IS
ALSO HELPING MAINTAIN THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DRIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
FROM NW HISPANIOLA AT 19N73W TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER AT
15N84W. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE NORTH OF THE AXIS
WITH LIGHTER 10-15 KT TO THE SOUTH. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO SPREAD
TO THE NORTH OF THE AXIS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EAST OF THE
BASIN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. .

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WEST ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N46W CONTINUING TO
HISPANIOLA ALONG 26N60W 19N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEAR
AXIS IN THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF THE AXIS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS UP TO
100 NM WEST OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST ALONG 50W SUPPORTS A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 25N31W...WHICH
IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SPAIN AND DOWN THE
WEST AFRICAN COAST SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG
31N14W TO 29N19W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

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