[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 5N18W 1N24W AND 1N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N28W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 5S40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
2N TO 3N BETWEEN 10W AND 11W...FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 12W AND
15W...FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 24W AND 25W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N
BETWEEN 27W AND 28W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 6N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. ANY
PART OF A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER DOES
NOT REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO. RESULTANT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CYCLONIC CENTER ULTIMATELY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA NEAR 21N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT 180 NM TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM 20N TO 29N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 88W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE
MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N98W. PLEASE REFERENCE THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING THAT
IS FORECAST FOR 30 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
30N85.5W 25N80W 20.5N97W COLD FRONT. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF 14N83W 20N77W
BEYOND 20N60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS WESTERLY WIND
FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTER PART OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE BORDER OF MEXICO WITH
BELIZE TO 20N BETWEEN THE COAST AND 90W AT 24/2345 UTC.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO
COVERED THE AREAS FROM NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS TO MEXICO
JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER WITH GUATEMALA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA. THE NUMEROUS STRONG
PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED. THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM THAT PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1017 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N57W TO 24N61W...
CROSSING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND REACHING 20N74W
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2....AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 15.5N TO 20N BETWEEN 82.5W AND 85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
63W AND GEORGIA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST
80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 25N80W 27N70W 28N60W BEYOND 32N52W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W
TO 27N32W AND 21N30W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W
TO 30N37W TO 28N40W...25N44W AND 21N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 31N
BETWEEN 28W AND 32W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N33W 25N41W 21N50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1017 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N57W TO 24N61W...CROSSING
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND REACHING 20N74W IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB
MOROCCO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N6W TO A 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N20W...TO 27N26W AND
20N45W...TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W. THIS RIDGE
EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO MERGE WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE
25N57W 20N84W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N37W 22N50W 20N58W COLD FRONT. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 35W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N
BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND 11 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT TO 62W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 37W. EXPECT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT
SEAS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 70W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF
28N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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