[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 7N12W TO 2N18W 2N24W AND 1N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 1N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1S33W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN
18W AND 19W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 27W AND 28W...
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY. ANY PART OF A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER DOES NOT REACH THE GULF
OF MEXICO. RESULTANT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CYCLONIC CENTER ULTIMATELY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
IS CONNECTED TO THE 31N79W ATLANTIC OCEAN 1002 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. THE COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 26N82W 23N90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO
THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N98W. PLEASE REFERENCE THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...
AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING THAT
IS FORECAST IN ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...
A MIDDLE LEVEL CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE
ICAO STATION KGVX OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
FAIR SKIES OR NO REPORTS ARE AT THE OTHER TEXAS
GULF COAST PLATFORM SITES. ICAO STATION KMDJ
THAT IS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA
IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CEILING. SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
REPORTED AT THE SITES THAT ARE FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT THE OTHER PLATFORMS.

MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...IN HARLINGEN...
BROWNSVILLE...AND IN PORT ISABEL. THE OBSERVATIONS
FROM PORT ISABEL HAVE BEEN REPORTING LIGHT RAIN
FOR AT LEAST THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO.
EDINBURG...WESLACO...AND MCALLEN SHOW CLEAR SKIES.
CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED AT THE STATIONS THAT ARE
ALONG THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. CLEAR SKIES
ALSO ARE IN THE REST OF THE GULF COAST PLAINS FROM
THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION AND
AT MARATHON KEY...AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA AREA AIRPORTS. CLEAR SKIES
ARE REPORTED AT THE REST OF THE FLORIDA COASTAL
STATIONS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 26N82W 19N93W COLD FRONT. EXPECT
25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...
AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF 14N83W 20N77W
BEYOND 20N60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS WESTERLY WIND
FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N54W TO 21N70W...
CROSSING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 20N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2....AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST FRONT 23N81W 19N87W.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
INDICATES 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N80W...CONTINUING TO THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM 28N TO 29N...PASSING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 18N97W IN MEXICO. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 28N70W...TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA...TO 25N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N31W TO 27N28W AND 19N29W. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N33W TO 26N40W AND 20N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ANY PRECIPITATION IS ALONG AND TO
THE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
32N31W 27N38W 23N46W 20N48W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N54W
TO 21N70W...CROSSING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 20N81W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N12W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N19W...TO 19N38W 17N50W...AND TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY APPEARS
TO MERGE WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE 25N57W 20N84W
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 30N35W 21N52W COLD FRONT.
EXPECT 20 KNOT OR LESS WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 55W.
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N80W 28N81W. EXPECT
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 55W.
EXPECT 20 KNOT OR LESS WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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