[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
02N21W TO 02N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N26W TO 02N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN
19W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH WESTERLY MIDDLE
LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY NEAR 37N89W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR
30N89W EXTENDING SW ALONG 28N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
23N98W. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT...THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS EVENING
AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST WITH STRONG N-NW WINDS IN THE RANGE
OF 20 TO 30 KT. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR
30N84W SW TO 24N90W TO 20N95W. MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS A PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM 26N-28N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE BASIN
BY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY
N-NE WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST BY
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AND STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH A
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N75W CONTINUES TO KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER
TRANQUIL ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING. SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY
CLEAR AS TRADES PERSIST E OF 78W MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25
KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-75W IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SOUTHERLY W OF 78W ON THE WEST PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHERE THEREAFTER A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN USHERING IN N-NE WINDS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A 996 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N79W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO 31N68W. CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 74W...AND WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N57W. FARTHER EAST...A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY
OF 34N47W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N37W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 21N53W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. FINALLY...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 29N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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