[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING ALONG 5N18W 2N23W TO 2N29W WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 19W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS
SE GEORGIA INTO THE W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF
WATERS WITH THE AXIS ALONG 88W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
PLAIN STATES EXTENDING S TO OVER TEXAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE NW GULF AT 24/0300 UTC OVER SW LOUISIANA NEAR
30N93W TO 27N96W THEN W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST S OF CORPUS
CHRISTI NEAR 27N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY ALONG 26N93W TO
23N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED W OF A LINE FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA ALONG
27N90W TO 22N95W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE REACHING FROM
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ LATE SUN THEN CLEAR OF THE GULF BY
LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE S ATLC AND THE DEEP TROPICS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND NE NICARAGUA. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN
BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA
AND PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E-SE ACROSS W ATLC THROUGH
SUN PRODUCING FRESH TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO
STRONG S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH SUN
MORNING THEN WEAKEN LATE SUN THROUGH MON. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
YUCATAN CHANNEL MON EVENING AND STALL FROM E CUBA TO S BELIZE
LATE WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS
SE GEORGIA INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A
REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT IS MEANDERING ALONG 30N W OF 72W TO
INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO NEAR 26N66W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 38W-55W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N43W AND CONTINUES ALONG
25N50W TO 21N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
28N31W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. W
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E-SE THROUGH SUN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER W ATLC SUN NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 32N68W TO W
CUBA LATE MON AND FROM 32N51W TO E CUBA LATE TUE THEN STALLING
WED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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