[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
03N20W TO 02N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N28W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N
BETWEEN 01W-05W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N
BETWEEN 13W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH AS AN
APPROACHING TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING...A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS NEAR 28N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FAR NE GULF
WATERS N OF 28N E OF 86W. OVER THE NW GULF...A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AS A 1004 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 29N96W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S-SW TO 24N98W
AND REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE AND A WEAK WIND SHIFT ABOUT THE
AXIS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. BY
EARLY SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW
GULF BRINGING STRONG N-NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30
KT...SPREADING EAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AND STABLE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH A
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W CONTINUES TO KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER
TRANQUIL ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES TO FAN OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT...HOWEVER ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY
CLEAR. TRADES PERSIST E OF 80W MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25
KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-76W IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHERE THEREAFTER A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN USHERING IN N-NE WINDS LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 55W...A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS THE
EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 32N78W TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 74W...
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 27N69W. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W. THE
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 22N60W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EAST AND 90 NM WEST OF
THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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