[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC BY COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N13W THEN CONTINUING ACROSS 3N20W
TO 1N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N30W TO EQ36W 2S42W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AXES BETWEEN 21W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREAD
OVER THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF AND
ADJACENT WATERS...CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED
BY DRY AIR ALOFT OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
SOUTHERLY WIND IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE
REGION...HOWEVER WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27N ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG AND HAZE.
THIS SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO THIS REGION
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. OVER THE NE GULF...A PREVIOUS
WARM FRONT HAS TRANSITIONED TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORDA TO 29N83W 29N87W TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
NEAR 29N89W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY N OF 28N
E OF 88W. OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATE THE
BASIN AND THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AIR ALOF OVER
MOST OF THE REGION SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA DUE TO A BURST OF INLAND
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA. IN TERMS OF WINDS...EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15 KT
DOMINATE THE  CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE NORTHEASTERLY
TRADES UP TO 20 KT ARE ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW UP TO 25 KT IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 78W N OF 15N.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A PORTION OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ENTERS THE W ATLC WATERS NEAR 29N81W TO
29N80W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM
E OF THE FLORIDA COAST N OF 28N. FURTHER EAST A 1019 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 27N69W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE PRECEDES A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N48W AND EXTENDS ALONG
26N51W TO 20N59W WHERE IT TRANSITION TO A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N
OF 21N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE REMAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COLD FRONT IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS W OF
45W N OF 27N. OVER THE E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS N
OF 18N EAST OF 48W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
29N33W. WITHIN THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL BE DISPLACED EASTWARD AND LAST FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS PRODUCING
SHOWERS IN THE W ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE W ATLC HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD DISPLACING THE COLD FRONT TO THE
CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR

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