[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING ALONG 5N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 29W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE SW COAST OF
AFRICA TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 13W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM 26N87W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W.
WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT N OF 26N. AT THE SURFACE THE
FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY EXTENDING AT 23/0900 UTC FROM ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPA AND CEDAR KEY THEN ALONG
29N87W TO OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST AND N
OF 27N E OF 85W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 92W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
REACH NW GULF SAT NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO LATE SUN THEN REACH FROM STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE S ATLC AND THE DEEP TROPICS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE NICARAGUA. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN
BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS
DO REMAIN INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND
REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THIS
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT E-SE ACROSS THROUGH SUN AND BRING FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE FRESH TO STRONG S TO SE WINDS DEVELOPING
IN NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE MOST OF BASIN MON THROUGH WED AS
NEW COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY S ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE THEN
STALLS FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE LATE WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 27N W OF 55W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N49W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N56W TO 21N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 25N. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS TO THE W OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N71W.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N35W GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT E-SE THROUGH SUN IN WAKE OF FRONT. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER W ATLC LATE SUN WITH FRONT REACHING THROUGH
32N61W 27N65W TO NW CUBA LATE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net