[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W CONTINUING ALONG 6N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 30W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N E
OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 10W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM 26N92W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W WITH
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT N OF 26N. AT THE SURFACE A WARM
FRONT IS RETREATING N OVER THE N GULF AT 23/0300 UTC EXTENDING
FROM ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPA ALONG 28N86W THEN
OVER SE LOUISIANA JUST N OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT E
OF 85W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NE OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER
FLORIDA AND THE N GULF COAST. SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF
N OF 23N W OF 90W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE
THROUGH SAT. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH NW GULF SAT NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO LATE
SUN THEN REACH FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE S ATLC AND THE DEEP TROPICS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR BELIZE. THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLANDS
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN AND REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT E-SE ACROSS THROUGH SUN AND BRING FRESH TRADE
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE FRESH TO STRONG S TO SE
WINDS DEVELOP IN NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING GULF OF HONDURAS AND
YUCATAN CHANNEL. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE MOST OF BASIN MON
THROUGH WED AS NEW COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY S ACROSS YUCATAN
CHANNEL TUE THEN STALLS FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE LATE WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N78W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR MELBOURNE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 27N W OF 55W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N52W AND CONTINUES ALONG
25N58W TO 21N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE ENTIRE FRONT. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N64W TO 31N68W. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS TO THE
W OF THE FRONTS NEAR 27N73W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N38W GIVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. LEADING W ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E-SE THROUGH SUN IN WAKE OF FRONT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER W ATLC LATE SUN WITH FRONT REACHING
THROUGH 32N61W 27N65W TO NW CUBA LATE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net