[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W CONTINUING ALONG 6N17W 2N21W TO 2N25W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N33W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 9W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 13W-22W...AND FROM 1N-
4N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N ALABAMA ACROSS SE
GEORGIA INTO THE W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF
WATERS WITH THE AXIS ALONG 88W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EXTENDING OVER THE FAR NW GULF FROM LOUISIANA AND TEXAS
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NW GULF AT
24/0900 UTC OVER LOUISIANA FROM 29N91W TO 27N94. A RE-ENFORCING
COLD FRONT IS STILL INLAND OVER TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES
THE DISSIPATING FRONT EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR FORT
WALTON BEACH TO 25N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF FOG ARE BEING REPORTED W OF A LINE
FROM NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA FROM 27N92W TO 23N92W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF LATER
TODAY REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ LATE
TONIGHT THEN CLEAR OF THE GULF MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE S ATLC AND THE DEEP TROPICS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND NE NICARAGUA. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN
BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 63W TO ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMARKABLY
CLEAR THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E-SE ACROSS W ATLC PRODUCING
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG S TO
SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING GULF OF
HONDURAS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER YUCATAN CHANNEL MON EVENING AND STALL FROM E CUBA TO S
BELIZE WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS
SE GEORGIA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 28N73W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLC FROM
26N-31N BETWEEN 65W-75W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT IS
MEANDERING ALONG 31N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER THESE GEORGIA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE
FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
WITH A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO NEAR
26N62W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N
BETWEEN 38W-55W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION NEAR 32N40W AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N46W TO 23N51W AND
DISSIPATING TO 21N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR
28N26W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E-SE THROUGH TODAY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER W ATLC TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 32N68W
TO W CUBA LATE MON AND FROM 32N51W TO E CUBA LATE TUE THEN
STALL WED THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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