[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211112
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR
11N15W TO 6N18W 3N23W AND 2N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 2N25W TO 2N30W 2N42W 3N46W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 5W AND 13W. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...FROM 3N
TO 7N BETWEEN 32W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WIND FLOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N76W TO 27N76W AND 22N77W CLOSE TO THE COAST OF CUBA.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N76W TO
27N78W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TO COASTAL CUBA NEAR 23N84W...TO 22N90W
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO COASTAL
MEXICO NEAR 21N97W...INLAND TO 22N100W IN MEXICO.
A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N78W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 26N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN
66W AND 74W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF CUBA TO THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA NEAR
15N90W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS GULF
COAST TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 24N97W...
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...WAS 0.87 OF AN INCH.

THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...
ICAO STATION KGVX OFF THE TEXAS COAST IS REPORTING
A BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CEILING...TO GO ALONG WITH THE
SIMILAR OBSERVATIONS THAT ARE FOUND IN THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. ICAO STATION KHQI ALSO
IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CEILING. FAIR SKIES/
CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WERE COVERING
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS SIX HOURS AGO. THE SKIES IN THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. A MIXTURE OF FAIR SKIES
AND MIDDLE LEVEL TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
REST OF THE OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM
NAPLES TO PUNTA GORDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER
THE REST OF THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM LOUISIANA
TO FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NEAR 24N81W TO 22N88W TO 21N97W. EXPECT 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 24N TO 27N
BETWEEN 86W AND 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N84W 15N77W 16N66W BEYOND 16N60W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT
IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...MERGES WITH THE
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N46W TO 25N55W...
ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TO 17N70W.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO THE GUATEMALA/
HONDURAS BORDER. A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
21N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
THE REST OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH...NORTHEAST...AND
EAST OF THE LINE 18N80W 16N73W 11N65W...IN AREAS
OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING
AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...WAS 0.20 OF AN INCH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA ALONG 10N73W
TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W ALONG THE COSTA RICA/
PANAMA BORDER...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 82W AND 91W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...WAS 0.87 OF AN INCH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W
TO 24N31W AND 13N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 28N30W AND 25N41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N19W 25N30W 23N50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N46W TO 25N55W...
ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TO 17N70W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AWAY FROM THE 32N23W
25N41W COLD FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N76W LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N76W 27N77W AND 24N81W. FORECAST...
TO THE NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN 90 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FEET. TO THE NORTH
OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 180 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG
25N35W 24N42W 27N50W. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 19 FT IN NW TO N SWELL...
THE HIGHEST SEAS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 45W.
EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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