[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO
5N17W TO 3N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N25W TO 3N40W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 6W-15W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF THE ITCZ
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 22W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W TENNESSEE
NEAR 36N89W PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO WHILE
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF. THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE SW GULF
AT 22N92W TO S OF TUXPAN MEXICO AT 21N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE N
OF THE FRONT...AND 10 KT S WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS MOSTLY WNW WINDS ARE NOTED. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 27N.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME ZONAL.
ALSO EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND SOUTHERLY
SURFACE RETURN FLOW TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N70W. A
RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N67W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A 1024 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N44W. A COLD
FRONT IS FURTHER E OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N19W TO 25N30W AND
DISSIPATING TO 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR BOTH COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FRONT AND CONVECTION OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FRONT BETWEEN 48W-55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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