[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR
11N15W TO 6N18W AND 4N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
4N21W TO 3N26W 4N35W 3N49W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 2N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM THE AFRICA COAST SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 4W AND 10W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 1N BETWEEN
12W AND 15W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 31W AND 40W...AND
TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 15W AND
31W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WIND FLOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N79W TO 27N79W AND 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
29N79W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 30N76W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N76W BEYOND
32N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW
CENTER ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N85W...23N90W 23N96W...TO THE MEXICO COAST
NEAR 22N98W...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 22N98W TO 26N102W
IN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN MEXICO ALONG 21N88W
17N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA SIX HOURS AGO. THAT PRECIPITATION
HAS DISSIPATED IN MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
IN GUATEMALA TO THE NORTH OF 16N. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN
CUBA...IN VARADERO...AND WITH THUNDER IN HAVANA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN
70W AND 78W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 28N77W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...25N79W IN THE BAHAMAS...23N81W AT THE COAST
OF CUBA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...WAS 0.87 OF AN INCH.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...
CLEAR SKIES COVER THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COAST. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS
COASTAL PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA GULF COASTAL
PLAINS FROM NAPLES TO BROOKSVILLE. THE VISIBILITY IN
BROOKSVILLE IS 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG AND OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 28N81W 23N92W 22N98W COLD FRONT...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
TO 28N TO THE WEST OF 88W. EXPECT THE COMPARATIVELY
HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS NEAR 26.5N90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N84W 15N77W 16N66W BEYOND 16N60W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT
IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...MERGES WITH THE
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...THROUGH GUATEMALA...
HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR...INTO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.
THE REST OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH...NORTHEAST...AND
EAST OF THE LINE 20N82W 17N79W 15N72W 11N65W...IN AREAS
OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING
AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...WAS 0.20 OF AN INCH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA ALONG 8N76W
TO 8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N
TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 83W AND 91W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...WAS 0.87 OF AN INCH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W
TO 24N33W AND 13N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 29N30W AND 26N42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N22W 26N30W 24N50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N49W...TO 27N55W 25N64W AND 23N73W
JUST OFF THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
1022 MB CENTER TO 23N43W 13N38W AND 5N37W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 27N35W 26N44W COLD FRONT AND THE
20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND 8 TO 19 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 52W. THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST
SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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