[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N16W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 4N20W 1N26W 1N35W 3N42W THEN TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 49W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W.
A SMALLER CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN
27W AND 32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND 250 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM N OF
BOTH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXES E OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW CONTINUAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE E PACIFIC WIHC IS SUPPURTING BROKEN
SKIES W OF 85W. GOES IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ENHANCEMENT INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 91W AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW AND NE REGIONS OF THE BASIN. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS CONFIRMS THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE NW GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS. HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS OF 20 KT CAN BE
FOUND W OF 95W. RETURN FLOW IN THE SAME MAGNITUDE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED IN THE W CARRIBEAN ON
THE 0000 UTC MAP HAS DISSIPATED. THE ENTIRE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER FRENCH GUIANA IN SOUTH AMERICA.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS RIDGE IS SUPPLYING MOISTURE FROM THE
E PACIFIC AND S OF THE EQUATOR TO MOST OF THE BASIN WHICH IS
SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N EXTENDS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 16N67W.
LIGHT EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT SPREAD OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF JAMAICA AND N OF 16N. THE CONTINUATION OF A
TIGHTER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS
MAINTAINING EASTERLY TRADEWINDS UP TO 25 KT. NORTHEASTERLY
TRADEWINDS OF NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLOMBIA
COAST. THE FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING THIS MORNING AND STRONGER
TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N67W
COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 52W. IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC REGION NEAR
30N41W AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N48W 19N58W THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
TO S OF PUERTO RICO. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N39W
24N45W TO 21N51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THESE TWO
SURFACE FEATURES AND WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT
AS SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 27N10W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N14W
TO 26N17W. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS
FEATURE. THE RIGDE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
WHILE IT BROADENS COVERING THE WEST AND CENTRAL N TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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