[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N16W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 3N24W 5N39W 3N45W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 25W-32W WITH CLUSTERS WITHIN 45 NM OF
LINE FROM 3N17W TO 2N24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE GULF WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE TEXAS COAST
GIVING THE GULF DOMINATE SW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND
OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N100W ENHANCING THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE W GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRAY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE OVER THE W GULF FROM 24N-29N W OF 90W AND FROM
19N-24N W OF 96W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS
IS LEAVING THE E GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TUE. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AND STALL TUE NIGHT THEN LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER
HIGH OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N51W. AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN
UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 16N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ESTABLISHED FROM SW HAITI INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM
NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N
BETWEEN 82W-86W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC S OF 26N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH E OF
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N71W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N42W
AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N50W 21N58W THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N16W ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
15N19W THEN INTO THE TROPICS TO 5N27W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC OVER THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N17W TO 23N24W. THIS
FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE E
THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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