[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N16W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 2N23W EQ36W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ49W. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W. SMALLER CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W AND
33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 34W AND
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
CONTINUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE E PACIFIC WHICH IS
SUPPORTING BROKEN SKIES OVER MOST OF THE GULF. GOES IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY ENHANCEMENT INDICATE THAT RAINSHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 89W WHEREAS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW GULF. RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRM
RAINSHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF FROM THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA TO
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS. SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE
RANGE OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS. HOWEVER STRONGER
WINDS OF 20 KT CAN BE FOUND W OF 93W AS WELL AS N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. RETURN FLOW IN THE SAME MAGNITUDE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER FRENCH GUIANA
IN SOUTH AMERICA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS RIDGE IS SUPPLYING
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC AND S OF THE EQUATOR TO MOST OF THE
BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. EASTERLY TRADEWINDS UP TO 25 KT SPREAD
OVER THE WEST...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
CONTINUATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATE MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF NEAR
GALE FORCE ARE ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. STRONGER TRADEWINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N62W
COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 52W. IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC REGION NEAR
30N38W AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N45W TO 19N56W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO 18N62W. SATELLITE
COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY N OF 23N AS WELL AS 150 NM WEST OF THE REMAINING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RIGDE OVER THE W ATLC IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STATIONARY WHILE IT BROADENS COVERING THE WEST AND
CENTRAL N TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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