[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 5N16W AND 3N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
3N22W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...TO 1S34W AND 3S41W AT
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 8W AND
28W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO
THE EAST OF 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N76W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS... ACROSS WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...TO 20N85W AND
16N87W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH THAT
SUPPORTS THE FRONT IS INLAND...LEAVING ONLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IN THE GULF WATERS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND
FLORIDA...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 32N60W 28N70W 23N80W. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND THE UPPER TEXAS
GULF COAST... INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N95W...TO
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...TO
THE FLORIDA BORDER. ICAO STATION KVBS...JUST OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA...IS REPORTING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS FOR ITS LAST TWO OBSERVATIONS. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE FLORIDA GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE AT THE ICAO STATION KCRH. BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE FOUND AT ICAO STATION KGBK. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES
COVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE DRILLING SITES.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WATER VAPOR
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N47W...TO
23N47W TO 15N52W AND 8N57W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO
23N40W...TO 15N50W. A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
31N46W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1002 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N46W... TO 25N47W AND 21N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 33W AND 50W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 50W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA INCLUDING ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N70W...TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 26N67W. ONE BRANCH CONTINUES FROM 26N67W TO JAMAICA AND THE
EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. A SECOND BRANCH CONTINUES FROM 26N67W
TO PUERTO RICO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N71W...TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 26N67W. ONE BRANCH CONTINUES FROM 26N67W TO JAMAICA AND THE
EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. A SECOND BRANCH CONTINUES FROM 26N67W
TO PUERTO RICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N9W 32N16W...TO AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N22W...TO 21N30W AND 11N49W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 24W/25W FROM
5N...THROUGH 24N23W...BEYOND 32N21W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 11 TO 17 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS THAT ARE RELATED TO THE 31N45W TO 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N47W...TO 23N53W. ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF
70W...EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 20N AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF
20N. THE COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N76W 24N80W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN
180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT
AND TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TO 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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